There were a lot of topics I planned to write but this is very important and recent event the elections. And I postponed all the others.
Please click to see an unexpected negative effect
Apparently finaly it has come Russian spring expected by west. But my Russian friends comment so, it has been just a Russian tradition to protest all the winners of elections. It s neighter a revolution nor evolution but just a kind of Russian habit since Soviet Union. Anyway I watch the protests which have a potential to be transformed riots. Sure I dont have a right of to say something about Russia's destiny as I am not a Russian citizen yet. I can not claim any idea to Russian people to do but just let them be sure of my goodwill. I just try to comment my observations and I hope they will be helpful for Russians to achieve better days. Nowdays some people complain of alleged frauds and irregularities at elections. They claim that the elections were not fair. Or perhaps they have difficulties to accept the results of something when they lost and so they try to ignore the results. Putin promises to order to investigate all the claims about the elections. It seems not so realistic a person will order for a serious investigation about the claims agaist himself if realy they have been done some irregularities on his demand. Normaly he would try to hide them if some frauds have done in his knowlege. Now I am afraid after these investigations he still may not be able to convince the opposition. They may continue to have doubts about the elections. In any case I understand such kind of activists who really beleive the elections were not fair and there were some frauds. They just beleive that they fight for thier rights and justice. However they need some evidences to sound such a serious claim, theoricaly I agree with them.
“Let Journalists Return to Their Families!”
But as far as I can see they are not the all of the content of protester groups. It seems to me, another group involves the demonstrations for political revenge or benefit. I mean looser rivals of Vladimir Putin and banished former ministers. I think though if they were ruler before the elections they probably would not accept elections with a Putin victory and dispute the elections which they held themselves.
There is one more group in demonstrations.
They are just funny. Impossible to understand them. They just say that "We are bored of Putin." Uhh! What is it? What a reason to involve a protest demonstration? Perhaps they think the life is a computer game and they miss to see "game over" on the screen. Well what let it happen, so each year let us make one of Russian citizens the president in alphabetic order, so the president can be always new and you will be O.K. And plus all the Russian citizens have an opportunity to be president for a year and it may give an opportunity to make economy on the expences of elections. No need to be successful or popular to be president. They dont need a good president but they need just somebody new. It would be difficult for them if they lived in Tzars era.
But the worst doubts are for a possibility of some people alleged foreign supported. It s a great shame to try to sale the motherland if these claims are truth. To cause unrest in your own country for an amount of money from your hostiles.
An other interesting point is the role of -so called- social media in riots globally. That kind of programs and web sites were used to find a lover till a few years ago. But now they have been over political by somebody. Mass crowd of people think and consider they use social media but perhaps in fact somebody at the other edge of the wire uses them. Perhaps you may want to take a look this article at the link http://rt.com/news/utah-data-center-spy-789/. To use social media to save your country? But are you sure it s under control of the ones want a good future for your country? Does really internet provide total freedom? People accuse Russia to have anti democratic applications by the administration, are they sure about everything of social media? What about censorship? As far as I know it does not exit legaly in mass media. But is it possible you receive online provacative messages from not a human but from a computer software invites you to involve a demostration tomorrow from facebook?
It also seem to me shocking Russian nationalist groups involve the protest movement. It s a paradox that western powers and Russian nationalists both complain of Vladimir Putin. I am not his advocate but I was eyewithness of comments and articles in western and my country's media and in the internet, accusing Putin to try to establish Soviet Union again, to start Cold War again, to try to make Russia an alternative to western world as a superpower they were complaining of Putin not to make enough cooperation with the western world. And interestingly now they are at the same side with Russian nationalists to be against Putin. U.S. State Secretary H. Clinton expressed her opinion of she was glad with the demonstrations to be happened in Russia to be evidence of a growing democracy. If Lenin can watch us from his marble mausoleum in the red square, with the recent picture, communist party members are at the same side with capitalist world leading power I think he is in a shock.
George W. Bush could win the elections for his second term just with %1 difference of votes with his rival. There were refusals to the results and votes had to be counted second time. Even in the best case for him, it means half of American people were against him. His decisions and orders resulted with billions of dollars extra load to American budget which leaded the last global economic crisis and loosing millions of lifes in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The war in Iraq started with a insubstantial intellegance for weapons of mass destruction and was very lethal for millions of people. He had a power and ability even with only %1 difference. Why did not occur street riots against him by the 49 per cent? Who knows perhaps really it s just coincidence that social media is mostly based and under control of America. Were American people just lack of American support to make a spring? Perhaps the members of the movement of "Occupy Wall Street" those were arrested again by NYPD today know the answer.
Let us try to make a prescience of what might happen to Russia in the following days?
1- Russian Arab Spring: Thousands of people may die with such a civil war we see examples in Syria, Libya, Egypt, Yemen etc. A chaos, not only in Russia but over the World when it s considered Russia's power. A civil war in Russia may be a great risk for global security threats secure of nuclear weapons. Russian army may have to take control or even a NATO based foreign military operation leads an invation may happen. And probably this results with foreign supported requests of dependency from ethnic sources to establish some new countries in Russian territory.
2- The opposition may try to bring the problem to international platforms like European Human Rights Council, WTO or U.N. If they will be considered as the victims in those platforms Russia may face international sanctions. Some countries may cancel their trade deals with Russia, escpecially for natural gas purchases. Dont forget the project of Nabucco is an alternative to Russian gas for all the Europe. If some clients cease to buy oil and gas Russian economy may collapse completely. Unemployment, poorness and hunger may grow dramatically. And these awful economic conditions may bring Russia to the first scenario above.
3- Putin may step back and accept the repeat the elections. But the result will not chance. Or perhaps he may take even a higher rate this time by extra support from more people after everything lived. And the opposition starts to play the same song again.
4- Putin may accept an international investigation for opposition's claims. Election process may be investigated by intenational prestigious platforms and if they find something unfair or irregular the results may be calculated again and corrected. But it does not chance the result, Vladimir Putin wins again with a bit lower rate.
5- Or Putin may leave the Kremlin to a National United Front Coalition consists of all the opposition parties. Nationalists, Communists, Liberals and the oligark are set at loggerheads and scrap each other. And such a cabinet may not be able to work longer than one year, the elections will be repeated and with the results new conflictions may start.
I never want any of these nightmare scenarios. They may lead even World War 3. Actually perhaps no need to renew the elections but Putin administration may make reforms to promise more human rights, transparency and freedom without corruption as people ask for.
Here is a link below to a news about Communist party's pre election preparations.
http://www.en.rian.ru/russia/20120302/171688478.html
And only 2 days after this news they refused the election results. After reading this news their refusal to the results seems unreliable. Let me confess, Communism is the closest political view to me. In the conditions of today's world it looks like the only hope of humankind to escape from this "Wild Capitalism". Capitalism is a beast believe in money and eats human meat. But it seems absurd communists demand fair elections. The represantavites of an administration which allows just their own party to involve the elections but prohibits any other political party, now complains with claims of an unfair election in Russia. It seems to me very funny when Communist Party leader Zyuganov asks for more democracy. Like they had held democratic and free elections as communists for decades in Soviet era. I wonder very much what do they plan about election system a possible future communist sovereignty. If they can take the administration one day will they continue Soviet system like it was in past or will they allow all the other parties to continue to be exist in Russian political system? If communist party has been changes so dramatically, even their supporters may be disappoited with a feeling of this is not the party they voted for.
I dont have enough knowledge and experiance in Russia to have an idea if Vladimir Putin is so correct and useful or not; to be president for 15 years. But I just look at the western world to have an idea. Their reactions and approaching to him may partly help us to find out the answer. Their acts in 6 days war with Georgia and about NATO European Missle Shield is clear. Even a small kid may understand easly the target of the Missle Shield is not Iran nor N.Korea but the target is Russia.
Please click to see Medvedev's opinion on the subject.
According to Turkish news web site www.ihlassondakika.com Raytheon made AN/TPY-2 X-band radar has been located in a Turkish city Malatya had a superb performance during the trials with an amazing surveillance capability. It has a coverage of 4700 km and can observe and track even a tennis ball from that distance. Two more of this system are located in Alaska and a portable one on a ship in Pasific fleet. Turkish city Malatya is maximum 1000 km to even most far away point of Iran. Why do they need 4700 km? And what about Alaska? Who is just across the Bering bosphorous? Moreover, there are some more signs about western powers' friendship with Russia and it's frankness by their controversial presence on the matters like Syria, Kosova, Nabucco, S. Ossethia and Libya. And I have seen many negative comments about Putin from various authors in western media and internet accusing Putin restarting great left Soviet projects to try to make Russia more powerful country, even a superpower again to be an alternative to the west in the world. When it s looked outside abroad, Vladimir Putin looks a very good and successful leader. I dont say I am sure this but just it s his image from abroad is a leader stands up his country. Perhaps just I am wrong with my this idea, I will see. Of course Russian people can know much better than me and it s important their opinion not mine for his future. Perhaps it s just coincidence but his era looks like a period of a giant's standing up again. Russia has rescued from a terrible situation and started to develope, get stronger and to be renew again in his era. During 1990 s the country was like a person fell down on his face. Unfortunatelly Russia became a 3. World country with terrible conditions just after Soviet Unions collapsing. No goods in shops, no money, no job and plus an incredible inflation rate. No producing, no investments, no industry but a lot of new mafia and illegal crime organizations. In these worst years hundrets of thousands of sex worker Russian ladies appeared in Turkey as well as in some other countries. Engeneers, doctors, teachers, lawyers and even scientists had to sale their bodies to Turkish men with prices between 10 to 50 USD per night. Even some of them were married and had children in Russia. They remain very few of them nowdays. In 1990 s there was a gossip in my country that even policemen in Russia may murder for you if you give enough bribe. http://englishrussia.com/2012/03/13/life-in-russia-how-it-was-in-the-90s/
Fortunately I never see Russia's situation bad now. It s quite good country to live. I am happy to live here even more than to live in my own country. Russians had an opportunity to proud on their country's successes again in 2000s.
Russia has had an amazing development under V. Putin admisintration and became one of the most important countries in the World again but it s not enough to say nobody else can manage Russia better. Putin may have some faults and mistakes like all of us have. There is a proverb in my country that "Smoke does not exists from a place without fire." Means nothing is without a reason. If millions of Russian people are against him, he should has done some mistakes. And he can not ignore millions of his citizens.
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